📈Price Predictions
https://app.jexchange.io/pricePredictions
Introduction
The price predictions section to enable trustless price prediction markets for crypto assets.
Users can create and join time-bound markets to wager on whether a token’s price will rise above or fall below a target price within a set timeframe. Prices are resolved using on-chain liquidity pools or trusted oracle views, ensuring transparent and verifiable outcomes without intermediaries.
The protocol separates market configuration from market creation, allowing administrators to define safe, reusable pricing templates while giving users the freedom to launch predictions with customizable time windows and betting parameters. A built-in freeze period prevents last-second manipulation, and settlement logic fairly distributes rewards from the losing side to winners.
With no market creation fees and a simple fee model applied only at settlement, the system is designed to encourage early adoption while remaining economically sustainable. All funds are handled by smart contracts, and users always retain custody until settlement.
Bet positions are tokenized as NFTs, giving users true, on-chain ownership of their positions. These NFTs represent claimable rights on the prediction outcome and can be freely transferred or traded before settlement, enabling secondary markets on standard NFT marketplaces. This unlocks composability, liquidity, and new strategies such as exiting positions early, aggregating exposure, or building derivatives on top of prediction markets.
Business Model
Prediction Market Creation Fee
No, as it would prevent initial adoption.
Meanwhile, to prevent easy flooding, an amount of EGLD is required to create a prediction market. This amount is returned to the user when the market is settled.
To be discussed once critical users mass is reached.
Fee Model
Fees are taken on the prize pool (ie from losing side) during market settlement.
Fee: 7.5%
Fees are not taken on each bet, since winners should retrieve at least their initial bet.
If a market ends in a draw (the price neither increases nor decreases), no winners can be determined and therefore no rewards will be distributed. In this case, all bet amounts will be transferred to the fee recipient.
Prediction Market Timeline
Every price prediction market has its own timeline. Every market has 3 milestones:
Start: users can start betting
Freeze: users cannot place bets but the market continues until settlement milestone
Settlement: final price is settled, users with successful bets can claim their rewards
The freeze period is essential so uncertainty remains until settlement, thus preventing last-second-low-risk bets. A freeze period of 25% of the total market duration is recommended.
Boost system
Let's talk about the boost system and why it is critical for the entire prediction market feature.
Even with the freeze period (see above) there is no incentive in betting early, and last-minute bets get a advantage since they are less risky.
The boost system aims at fixing this.
Bets are boosted, meaning that the amount of tokens bet is weighted. The early you place your bet, the higher the boost.
Boost multiplier starts at X2 (when bet period open) and decrease to X1 (when bet period closes), following a linear function.
This boost is used as follows when calculating rewards of a successful bet:
(user rewards) = (user's bet amount) + (share of rewards)
(share of rewards) = (user's bet weighted amount) / (sum of weighted bet amounts)
Referral System
Referrers get a percentage of the fees on the markets they created.
In order to be fully autonomous, referral tiers are coded in the smart contract, as well as the conditions to unlock them.
Here is the set of tiers:
10%
100 USDC
25%
400 USDC
50%
1600 USDC
100%
6400 USDC
Scale is intentionally exponential, as they cannot be cumulated, and it's a one-time unlock (pay once and get rewarded on all the markets you create, forever).
Example:
Alice benefits from the 10% referral tier. Alice creates a prediction market. Users bet a total of 1000 USDC on losing side. Upon settlement, an amount of 75 USDC (7.5%) is taken as fees. Alice receives 7.5 USDC (10%). Protocol fees wallet receives 67.5 USDC.
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